President Buhari's ministerial list

Department of State Security have revealed President Buhari's ministerial list. They include Human rights lawyer Femi Falana, frontline Economist Pat Utomi, former Nigerian Breweries MD Festus Odimegwu, former Osun state governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Former MD of the Federal Inland Revenue, Mrs. Ifueko Omoigui-Okaru, Former Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen Abdulrahman Dambazu rtd, former Legal Adviser of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change CPC Abubakar Malami (rtd) and former Commissioner for DFFinance in Lagos state, Wale Edun.

Nigeria is one of world’s worst business destinations — World Bank

Photo credit: The Times UK

Despite improving five steps on its ranking last year, Nigeria emerged one of the worst business destinations, the 2015 World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking has showed. 

Nigeria ranked 170 among 189 economies covered in the 2015 edition, released on Thursday.

The improvement, which showed a 3.61 percent improvement from 43.72 percent points in 2014 to 47.33 percent points in 2015, reflected the country’s movement from the 175th position in 2014 to its current this year.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the report showed that Nigeria ranked 36 out of 47, barely above other struggling economies like Zimbabwe, Liberia, Mauritania, Congo Republic, Guinea Bissau, Angola, Congo Democratic Republic, Chad, South Sudan, Central African Republic and Eritrea.

The thrust of the report showed that entrepreneurs in 123 economies saw improvements in their local regulatory framework in 2014.

Between June 2013 and June 2014, the report documented 230 business reforms, with 145 reforms aimed at reducing the complexity and cost of complying with business regulation.

About 85 reforms aimed at strengthening legal institutions – with sub-Saharan Africa accounting for the largest number of such reforms, took place during the year.

The report identified Tajikistan, Benin, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Trinidad and Tobago, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Azerbaijan, Ireland and the United Arab Emirates as the economies that improved the most during the year in areas tracked by Doing Business.

These 10 top improving economies, the report noted, had implemented 40 regulatory reforms making it easier to do business in their respective environments.

The case studies highlighted good practices in eight of the areas measured by Doing Business indicators.

These included the growing efficiency of company registries in starting a business; zoning and urban planning in dealing with construction permits; measuring quality of land administration in registering property, and importance of registries in getting credit.

It also included going beyond related-party transactions in protecting minority investors; trends before and after the financial crisis in paying taxes; judicial efficiency supporting freedom of contract in enforcing contracts; and measuring strength of insolvency laws in resolving insolvency.

Out of 189 economies, Nigeria improved by nine steps from 138 in 2014 to 129 in 2015 in the starting business, while dropping three places in dealing with construction permits category, declining from the 168 ranking to 171.

The country’ best performance, the report showed, was in getting credit to start business, rising 73 spots from the 125 ranking in 2014 to 52 in the current report.

Although the country did not record any change in her 2014 ranking in terms of registering property and trading across borders, the country slipped marginally by two spots in her ranking on paying taxes and resolving insolvency – 177 to 179, and 129 to 131 positions respectively.

The country also dropped one step each in terms of protecting minority investors (dropping from 61 to 60 position), and enforcing contracts (from 139 to 140).

Details of the report showed that to register a company name in the Corporate Affairs Commission, CAC, and pay the mandatory fees at the CAC bank desk, a fresh businessman required a minimum of 11 days. It would, however, take a week to prepare the requisite incorporation documents and stamp duty for the company’s Memorandum and Article of Association.

Similarly, the report said it would take an average of five days to complete the reservation of a unique company name at the CAC after the payment for the mandatory application fees.

To get the declaration of compliance (Form CAC 4) signed before a Commissioner for Oaths or notary public, a businessman would have to wait for a whole day.

It would take the same duration to attempt to make a company seal and registration of a business premises with the Lagos state government, for instance, as well as pay the business premises levy at designated bank.

To register for income tax and the value added tax at the Federal Inland Revenue Service the report said the businessman would require a minimum of four days, while it would take about two days to register for personal income tax pay as you earn, PAYE, at the state tax office.

Bank Verification Numbers BVN registration

Nigerians in Diaspora that have Nigerian bank accounts and are yet to do their Bank Verification Numbers BVN registration can now do so without leaving their resident country as the Central Bank of Nigeria has made two options available for them to conveniently do the registrations.

According to circular dated August 18th and signed by the CBN's Director of Banking and Payment System, Dipo Fatokun, Nigerian bank customers in the diaspora can do their registration via option one; present themselves to the offshore branches/subsidiaries of any Nigerian bank (where such facilities have been made available), for the BVN enrollment.

“The deployment of scanners and other devices to these locations have started in earnest. Nigerian banks abroad are expected to capture necessary data, generate a BVN and communicate same to the customers. Thereafter, the customers are expected to forward the assigned BVN to their banks, for linkage with their accounts.

A web portal to achieve this linkage to bank accounts has been developed and deployed, while the process of such linkage will be made available by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS) to all those enrolled abroad,” the circular stated The second option is through the use of an company known as the Online Integrated Solution (OIS).

The company will establish stations for data capture and generation of BVN at the cost of £30 per transaction which is to be paid by the customer. The company is expected to capture necessary data for online transmission to the NIBSS, who would thereafter, generate the BVN and communicate same to the customer.

“The customer may approach OIS for BVN, where the communication from NIBSS is not received within 48 hours after the enrolment. Thereafter, Nigerian bank customers in the diaspora are expected to forward their BVN to their banks for linkage with their accounts as in option one above,” it explained.

The Bank Verification Number registration exercise in Nigeria has been extended to October 31st.

As-hoc corruption fight

Why are governments reluctant to leave office in Africa and why GEJ act of accepting defeat following an election will be an aberration. 

Fear of retribution and the need to survive is the driving force. Politicians in Africa are a dog eat dog bunch and have no sense of history or misinterpret history. The manner of the attempted arrest of Dusuki the immediate past NSA and just now the CSO to GEJ is troubling and the consequences far reaching. If you leave office, it must not be in your own volition. If APC intends to pursue its political opponents this way, they must guarantee their own future electoral victories. As Azikiwa once famously said, "no condition is permanent" and no one but Buhari must be aware of this life lesson. 

The only way to embed the fight against corruption is to encourage independent institutional action. The fight must be on standing order and not at the behest of current political leaders. If the fight is institutional and the fighters are civil servants and process led then it will be accepted to all and sundry. If you arrest former PDP governors for misuse of security votes APC former governors must also account for their security votes. Amechi bought a private jet while governor and Buhari used the jet during the election campaign. He, Amechi must account for his stewardship. 

The North produced most of the political leadership during the first Republic and were logically the most victims of the coup in 1966 yet the charge against the coup plotters were that Ibos from the East were not represented in the blood letting, easily forgetting they were not at the helm of national leadership. 

The point being our fight against corruption is politicalised and therefore doomed to failure. The fight is discriminatory and illogical. OBJ used the EFCC mainly against his political opponents. The fight has been on ad hoc basis not structural. There is no need for EFCC use the police CID, create special units to fight against politically exposed persons as they do in South Africa with their scorpion unit but within the police structure. No special court but have procedural rules for special cases. This way we all shout thief, thief and not just at persons who steal goats and chickens but also billions of Naira. 

I highly recommend this suggestion otherwise we will continue to chase our shadows.

River State, due process and public expenditure

The Rivers State Governor Mr Wike assumed office in May 2015, he claimed, and I accept, he had no co-operation from the preceding government of Rotimi Amechi. He therefore had no first hand knowledge of the state's financial wellbeing. He had no idea of the capital projects commissioned, progressed or completed. 

Less than a month in office the new governor felt the need to borrow N300 billion from the capital market and he wrote his desire to the PDP led House of Assembly. That House promptly approved the request by simple vote. That is the height of business as usual and abdication of responsibility by the House and abuse of process. There were no hearings on the terms of the loan, the need for the loan and assessing the debt profile of the state, the claimed capital project earmarked for the loan. 

How did the governor and his government get the figure of N300B. What process will this huge amount be dispensed. How will the state pay. If the concurrent and statutory obligations of the state is not being met how does this improve the situation. 

Remember the former governor upon taking office did a similar thing. He paid $150 million for the building of a new hospital within months of assuming office. When the contractor collected the money and the project failed, on national television, said he was not born a governor and described his error of judgement and wanton disregard for due process as teething problems. History does not repeat itself just silly men who occupy offices beyond their capacity. 

The people of Rivers state do not get off on this matter. What have they done to impress on their representatives about not doing their jobs.

Learning from Lagos - The Economist

Nigeria’s commercial capital is crowded, noisy, violent—and a model for the rest of the country

Surprisingly orderly these days

FOR a city that dubs itself the “centre of excellence”, Lagos has a lousy reputation. The mere mention of Nigeria’s commercial centre conjures images of crime, corruption and motionless traffic. The bodies of people run over in car accidents can be left on the street for hours and commuters in even the poshest parts of town are sometimes caught in shoot-outs between robbers and policemen. Little wonder then that in a ranking of the “liveability” of 140 cities by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of this paper, it sits in the bottom five. The besieged Libyan capital Tripoli scores higher, and war-threatened Damascus only fractionally worse. Its citizens are also an unruly lot: men urinate on the don’t urinate signs, people hawk by the don’t hawk signs and loiter by the no loitering signs.

Yet the city is a lot better now than it was two decades ago. Bola Tinubu, who became the governor of Lagos State when civilian rule was restored in 1999, remembers taking over a “slum”. “The traffic was chaotic. The infrastructure was disintegrating. There were mountains of refuse all over,” he recalls. “People were being murdered. Armed robbery was rampant. Dead bodies were picked on the street on average 10-15 times every week. There was no control of any kind.”

Lagos was rundown in the late 1990s because it was badly run. Rapid population growth, as rural migrants flocked to the big city, outstripped its infrastructure. No one really knows how many people live in Lagos: estimates range from 10m to 21m, but its congested roads and bridges have space for just a fraction of them.

Under military rule, the city was neglected by the central government. In 1991 Nigeria’s capital was moved to Abuja, an orgy of grandiosity built in the middle of the country to symbolise unity. Public spending followed the politicians there to pay for wide boulevards and marble-floored palaces. After the restoration of democracy in 1999 Lagos still found itself neglected, largely because its citizens had the temerity to vote for opposition parties, the forerunners of the All Progressives Congress (APC) that earlier this year unseated the incumbent People’s Democratic Party (PDP) that had run Nigeria for 16 years.

Mr Tinubu and his successor as governor, Babatunde Fashola, both say their efforts to reform were often frustrated by the PDP-led federal government. It failed to upgrade the main roads in the city that were under federal control, including one leading to West Africa’s biggest port. It delayed approval for an important train line that the state government was willing to pay for. “I don’t want to be understood as recriminating,” Mr Fashola says, “but I know things could have been better.”

Instead of relying on Abuja for funds, Lagos learned to generate its own. It created passable systems to monitor its own spending and squeeze taxes out of citizens not known for their eager compliance with such things. Internally generated revenue has risen to 23 billion naira ($115m) per month, from almost nothing a few years ago. That still amounts to only a few tax dollars per person. But the state has been able to borrow against that income to finance projects such as a much-needed bridge linking the upmarket areas of Ikoyi and Lekki. Moreover, its reliance on local tax collection has forced it to improve its services in order to attract businesses.

And in this regard it has done well. The state produces about $90 billion a year in goods and services, making its economy bigger than that of most African countries, including Ghana and Kenya. Much of Nigeria’s industry, which once thrived in the north, can now be found in the suburban manufacturing estate of Agbara. Cranes hang over the city and land is being reclaimed from the sea as developers rush to satisfy the vast appetite for property.

Seth Kaplan of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore argues that whereas national elections in Nigeria are a squabble over petrodollars, local elections in Lagos favour candidates who show competence and pragmatism. The opposition’s success in managing Lagos played a big role in its sweeping victories in state and national elections earlier this year.

Now that the APC holds power in Abuja as well as Lagos, the city has a chance to do better still. Many hope its efforts will not now constantly be stymied by a ruling party afraid of being shown up.

It could also teach politicians in the capital a thing or two. One lesson is that it helps to foster a broad tax base, instead of just relying on oil (which provides more than two-thirds of the central government’s revenues). Better tax collection would make the budget less vulnerable to wild swings in the oil price. It might also lead to more accountable governance: people who pay tax tend to demand better services in return. Another moral is that better infrastructure boosts economic growth, and if you don’t have the money to pay for it upfront, you can get private investors to do so instead: witness Lagos’s toll-roads and bridges.

For badly run countries in other parts of the world, the big lesson of Lagos is that reforms in one big city can sometimes kick-start wider change.

CBN vs The Economist

In this week’s edition of The Economist, the magazine dared to say what many people have been saying for a while now – Godwin Emefiele, Nigeria’s Central Bank Governor does not inspire confidence in anybody.

As anyone who has been paying attention would have noticed – the CBN Governor has a magnificent obsession with Nigeria’s foreign exchange rate. At the beginning of this year he was defending the Naira with billions of dollars. That (unsustainable) strategy has since been abandoned. There is a new strategy every week these days.

The latest one however has to do with banning the use of the official foreign exchange market if the purpose is to import a list of 40 items ranging from toothpicks to Indian incense.  It didn’t stop there – it went further to say import of those items cannot be funded by buying forex from Bureau de Change or proceeds from exports i.e. if you sell your goods abroad, you can’t use the forex you earn to import any one of those banned items.

In short, the only way to fund the import of those items is by sourcing dollars from the black market. You can go through the recent press releases from the CBN and the message is clear – it is cracking down on use of forex for anything it does not like.

Why is the CBN doing this? It is trying to ‘defend’ the value of the Naira. It feels that the demand for forex is too much and as such is trying to reduce the demand. The way to buy dollars in Nigeria is of course to exchange it for Naira. The point of trade is that you give up something less valuable to you in exchange for something you consider more valuable. All the people demanding dollars have Naira which at that point in time, is not very valuable to them. The more people do this, the higher the value of the thing they want which in turn reduces the value of the thing they are willing to give up for it.

The moral of the story here is that the CBN’s actions clearly show that it is determined to stop the devaluation of the Naira. By denying people dollars to buy toothpicks from South Africa, it is telling them to use their Naira to set up a toothpick manufacturing plant in Nigeria instead.

And so we come to the gist of what The Economist said in its article – this is a very strange way of stopping the import of items you feel can be produced locally:

Economists find the policy baffling. Central banks usually prop up their currencies if they are worried about inflation, or allow them to devalue to depress imports and stimulate exports. Nigeria, by contrast, appears to be set on achieving both an uncompetitive exchange rate and higher inflation

We know that toothpicks can be produced in Nigeria. The technology is not complicated to the point that Nigerians cannot do it. The reason why it is being imported is that it is obviously cheaper to do so.

Imagine that the exchange rate is N200 = $1. Now, due to poor infrastructure, insecurity, police harassment and of course high cost of generating power, it costs N1,000 to produce a box of toothpicks in Nigeria i.e. $5. But in America where the roads are good, there is 24/7 electricity, policemen don’t demand bribes on the highway and the technology has advanced to very efficient levels, you can produce a box of toothpicks for $2. Add another $1.50 for shipping the toothpicks to Nigeria and clearing it at Apapa Port. By the time you add a profit element, it is still possible to sell the toothpicks in Nigeria for $4.50 i.e less than it will cost you to produce it in Nigeria. If you’re a businessman, this is a no-brainer. Manufacturing is stressful and Nigeria can be very unpredictable. You don’t have to be ‘unpatriotic’ to opt to import instead of manufacturing – it makes business sense.

But remember that the businessman who is importing the toothpicks can only sell them in Nigeria in Naira. Using the above exchange rate, a box will be sold for N900 ($4.50 * 200) as opposed to the N1,000 it would have cost to produce it locally.

You can see where this is going – the ability to import toothpicks for cheaper than it costs to produce locally relies on that N200 to $1 exchange rate. If the Naira loses value against the dollar and drops to N230 to $1, all of a sudden it will now cost you N1,035 to import that box of toothpicks. It becomes cheaper to produce it locally (for the sake of this simple argument, we assume that everything required to produce the toothpicks is available locally). If you agree that the reason anyone will import toothpicks in the first place is because it is cheaper to do so, it follows that when it is no longer cheaper to import, the person will stop doing it. And if the demand for toothpick remains (people are unlikely to switch to using their fingernails), then there will be money to be made by supplying it to them.

This is not some untested economic theory by the way – as I wrote previously here, devaluing a currency and keeping it undervalued is a tried and tested strategy for industrialisation. The most recent example of this is China who for decades has kept its currency undervalued (combined with massive infrastructure spending) to keep its producers competitive.

But what the CBN is trying to do is keep the exchange rate at N200 to $1 (in the example above) and then telling people to simply stop importing. It wants them to be ‘patriotic’ and instead manufacture and sell in Nigeria for N1,000 – an 11% increase on the N900 people are paying for the imported ones (the inflation part of The Economist’s argument). There are very few places in the world where such an approach makes ‘sense’. Nigeria is one of them.

***

Amazingly, in 24hrs, the CBN has responded to the Economist’s article via a press release. It is never a good sign when the response is longer than the original article itself. By the end, we still do not really understand why the CBN is trying to strengthen the Naira at the same as it is claiming to be discouraging imports:

The CBN believes that Nigeria cannot attain its full potentials by importing anything and everything. For far too long, this trend has significantly weakened the operating capacities of our industries, but now is a good opportunity to begin a reversal. Although the article hastily derides this idea as lacking in economic foundations, it is the same principles upon which many other countries do not allow importation of certain products.

Once you believe that ‘the devil is abroad’, it will determine how you react to the situation. The CBN continues to ‘believe’ that importing is what is killing our industries. It follows then, that reducing or banning imports will resuscitate the industries. The question of why people choose to import in the first place is always conveniently ‘unlooked’. Importing simply happens because Nigerians are ‘unpatriotic’.

They say no one deceives themselves like the woman who has only child but when asked how the child is, she replies ‘which one of them?’. The problems are hard and will take a long time to tackle but the best time to start is now. It is sensible to import into Nigeria today. You need to be mad to try to produce most things in the country. That is why people collect all the ‘intervention funds’ provided by the government and buy Range Rover Autobiography with it.

Interestingly, the same Economist addressed the underlying issues about a month ago (emphasis mine):

FOR Muhammadu Abubakar, life is an uphill struggle. Farming in Nigeria is tricky at the best of times. Only the brave or the downright crazy would think of dealing in a perishable product like milk.

On his ranch on the dusty fringes of Kano, the biggest city in Nigeria’s north, he faces a daunting array of problems. The electricity grid is hopeless. So, at the gateway, two generators splutter away 24 hours a day. Diesel sets Mr Abubakar back about 1m naira ($5,100) a month. “We’ve had two hours of power in three days,” he says. “There’s no option.”

There are no good cows for sale nearby, so Mr Abubakar’s company, L&Z Integrated Farms, plans to start importing its own. There are no good seeds for fodder; he brought in cuttings on a commercial flight from Kenya. There is no mains water, so he must drill boreholes to irrigate his fields. Fertile land has a tendency to turn to dust. He has to train his own staff to use complicated machinery. Plenty of batches get spoilt along the way. By the time it is processed, a litre of milk has already cost about 320 naira (£1) to produce.

Then the milk has to get to market. “Three or four years ago we used to fly our milk down to Lagos,” he says. “It cost a fortune. The milk would spoil sitting in the airport. We had to pay off customs. It was a nightmare.” Nowadays, the firm uses costly refrigerated trucks instead. Drivers must brave day-long journeys on disintegrating roads. Each truck requires about 200,000 naira ($1,000) in opaque licence fees every month. Even when those are paid, local authorities send thugs out to get more.

“They make you buy new paperwork,” one trucker says. “We probably pay 3,000-4,000 naira (roughly $15-$20) every journey. ”When the milk finally arrives on supermarket shelves, it costs around three times what it would in Europe. Cheap long-life imports sell for less than half the price of local milk. Nigeria spends roughly $1m a day on imported milk powder, according to Sahel Capital, a private equity group which recently invested the same amount into Mr Abubakar’s business in the hope of changing that.

Other types of farming are equally fraught. Nestlé finds it cheaper to bring starch in than to buy it locally. Olam, a Singapore-listed agribusiness, says that processing costs up to 30% more than in other countries. Mukul Mathur, who heads its Nigerian business, says that moving a container from Kano to Lagos costs as much as from Lagos to Osaka, though the distance to Japan is 13 times greater.

Of course the CBN did not respond to this one.

FF

P.S This November 2014 article by Professor Ricardo Hausmann cannot get old. I share it with everyone I know – it addresses the issues currently afflicting Nigeria. 

P.P.S If you want something more technical, here’s a 2007 paper by Professor Dani Rodrik where he argues that an undervalued currency is associated with rapid economic growth in developing countries. 

Elections of NASS principle officers and APC.

The ruling party had an internal election for Speaker, deputy, Senate President and deputy positions. Various ambitious members and senators campaigned within the party and sought support from people they believed had influence within the party. They formed groups to achieve their outcomes. There was a public and open vote and the majority of APC voters chose those they wanted to lead them in the National Assembly NASS. 

The rules of NASS and our constitution state that only members and senators can cast a vote in the respective houses, House of Representatives and the Senate. Within NASS there is a civil service which serves both Houses. Their job will be to open doors, take notes of discussions and votes in these Houses. They have no vote or say on how the business of both Houses are conducted. 

APC is the political party, the fountain from whom policies and political guidance originate. All members are so by independent choice of will, no compulsion. The only means of enforcing its decision is to expel you from the group but it not a corporate member of NASS, its presence is through its members. 

Now, a group of disgruntled members who lost the primaries within the party for support for elected principle officers in NASS did not accept the common will of APC and decided to contest for the positions in any case. APC is the governing party in Nigeria because it won the presidency and majority in the NASS. So the will of the party ought to ordinarily be translated into votes in NASS. 

The Chair of APC is a former governor of Edo state without political hinterland. His personal power is therefore limited. His support either politically or monetarily is inconsequential to all and sundry. The head of APC is Tinubu the political godfather in the southwest and political power broker. He can make and unmake any political ambition in his hinterland. But his political fiat rest in the West and the West alone. There is the political North whose political leadership is currently with Buhari. However, Buhari being a former military head of state and without universal support in the North, prefers in this matter to be imperial so as not to actualise the fears of others worried about his militaristic tendencies resolved to be aloof. Nature does not allow for vacuum, neither does politics. In the void created by Buhari, Atiku steps in and seeks to be a puppet master. Step in an ambitious, wealthy former governor of Kwara state. In his mind he ought to be the president and he believed he has the pedigree and money to support his ambition. The problem for him is that his appeal is within two states created from the old Kwara state, Kwara and Kogi state. He forms an alliance with Atiku to wrestle power from the strongman of the West. That alliance is not enough so they sought and obtained the support of the opportunistic PDP to achieve what they believe is rightly theirs. 

There is no such thing as luck in politics. You get lucky when opportunity meets incompetence. Again politics is numbers, numbers and numbers. APC has the numbers for its will to prevail in NASS but sheer incompetence allows own goal after own goal. The staff of NASS answerable only to NASS is informed that the APC will be holding a meeting when elections are due and this election due date is not a secret. The APC without the ability to see a green snake in a green grass matches its loyal members away from the battle field across town to hold a meeting. Nothing said to the yam heads leading the party to insist that ALL elected APC members go that meeting or remain in the chambers and use its numbers in NASS to effect its will. While they were waiting and idly chatting, Saraki like the bini proverbial monkey named himself, everybody, so when everybody was called to eat, only he turned up. So in a spectacular feat of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory, a group numerical inferior prevailed with the assistance of PDP. Ditto the elections in the House of Representatives. 

Even fools are given a second chance. APC leadership gets a second chance. 

Yet Oyegun and Tinubu dropped the ball. This time all were present in the NASS chambers. How did they manage lose this time. 

Please grab a seat and popcorn and be ready to be entertained by clowns. 

They wrote a letter instructing NASS of its nominated officers for NASS offices. Remember, I told you APC was not a corporate member of NASS and therefore has no direct business giving instructions on the elections of NASS officers. Bingo, the Speaker and President rejected the instructions and chaos descended on NASS. In that event, principle officers were elected by a minority group within APC with PDP acting as guard dogs while APC tore itself apart and exposed its non coherent core to the public. They gave a  kiss of life to a dying PDP and created a powerful non conformity group within itself. Atiku and Saraki now consider themselves above APC and its leadership. 

APC should have allowed its members to vote and their instructions remain an internal matter within itself. The threat to deselect erring members in the next circle of elections or threat to expose those who steal, sleep with goats or any form of cohesion to bring such members into the fold to effect its will. They were busy writing letters while their Rome burned. APC clearly does not have the whip over its members, they now have lots of cowboys and no Indians. As they say, too many cooks spoil the soup as does APC.

How this group of people manage to unseat a governing party from office, now speaks of the PDP than it does of APC. PDP lost the election, APC did not win the elections. 

For political armchair pundit like me, this is sheer fun. The lesson is that democracy is an African game, we just stalled for long time.

Agenda For The Next Petroleum Minister

Guest Post: Agenda For The Next Petroleum Minister

The Nigerian petroleum industry has suffered equally from what was left undone – PIB, Gas reforms, regulatory effectiveness, as much as what was done – scandals. It is therefore important that the Minister appreciate what really matters – the core industry challenges, opportunities and options. We would like to help.

Increased Revenue Generation

Dwindling Nigerian Crude Oil Sales: Stop the beauty pageant – Nigerian crude oil is faced with a ‘double whammy’. Prices are generally low but structural changes in refining hubs and a glut of light sweet crude oil is eroding quickly the historical advantages Nigerian crude enjoys. Nigerian crude used to be in high demand but these days, much of it now linger on the market pushing price differentials down by over 60% in over two years. Current June market data estimate that about 80 Million barrels of Nigerian crude are stranded and looking for buyers. Reforming the archaic, opaque and detrimental crude oil sales mechanism adopted over the years is overdue.

The Bern Declaration report on the trading of crude oil in Nigeria (See here) described the current process as a ‘beauty pageant’, riddled with ‘monumental corruption and intense uncertainty’. In the current arrangement, NNPC does not sell most of the Nation’s crude oil entitlements directly to customers as many countries do but through middlemen (largely traders and briefcase companies) who naturally make a margin and are motivated to corrupt the system. In a buyer’s market, this is a deeply flawed strategy.

The new Minister must urgently establish measures to ensure that Nigeria sells most of its crude oil directly to customers – refineries, traders, National Oil Companies in our major markets. There is no alternative. Furthermore, a robust crude oil marketing strategy that confers advantage to Nigerian blends over rival light sweet crude oil even in a buyer’s market is a necessity. Angola’s ingenuity in marketing its crude oil sales is a good example. The country has established bilateral agreements with some of its major markets effectively eliminating rival crude in some instances. The Angola – Chilean crude oil bilateral agreement secured Angola a lion share of the medium sour demand knocking off Ekofisk and other crude that competed for the Chilean market. Nigeria’s major targets for bilateral crude sales agreement should include India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia etc. It might be prudent to ascertain what the impact of the EU – ECOWAS Free trade deal (EPA) might have on our crude oil sales to the European Union in analyzing the nation’s strategy.

Pioneer Status: Cronyism or an essential incentive? – Utilising a provision in the Industrial Development (Tax Relief) Act, many indigenous oil and gas companies in Nigeria have been granted zero tax, ‘pioneer  status’ by the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission, a non oil industry actor, resulting in enormous revenue losses for the Federal, States and Local Governments. This piece (See Here) provides granular insight into the dynamics and impact of the awarded pioneer taxes on Nigeria’s revenue. Different estimates of lost revenue to Pioneer Status have ranged from about $1Billion – 5Billion over the last 10 years.

The new minister must intervene. First, the provision in the IDA that confers pioneer status on companies in the petroleum industry must be eliminated and all pending applications rejected. There are incentives already enshrined in the Petroleum Profit Taxation Act and available for indigenous/new companies. Furthermore, the illegal approval of a straightforward 5 years zero tax in flagrant contravention of the extant law should be reversed. The IDA provides only for an initial 3 years zero tax status plus a possibility of renewal for another two years. We suggest that existing approvals should not be totally reversed but a limit of 3 years as provided by the law be adhered to.

OML Relinquishment/Retention Fees: The devil is in the details  – Schedule 1, Section 12 of the Petroleum Act states that

Ten years after the grant of an oil mining lease, one half of the area of the lease shall be relinquished

This provision of the law was aimed at dissuading companies from hoarding undeveloped assets in their portfolio and ensuring rapid development of reserves. Companies that have been granted mining leases (OMLs) are expected to relinquish 50% of their acreage. The relinquished acreage are then expected to be resold to interested parties even though there is a case for the relinquishing parties to have Right of first refusals on the relinquished areas.

As at today, this provision is rarely implemented but that needs to change. The Minister must aggressively pursue the implementation of the legal provision by ensuring that all qualifying companies relinquish or take up their ROFR option on the acreage. Though the potential revenue from implementing this provision may be constrained by the participation of NNPC in the Joint ventures but the anticipated revenue from qualifying assets are still substantial.

Bid Rounds: The lost decade?  – The last oil licensing bid round in Nigeria was conducted in 2007. We consider this a ‘lost decade’ of opportunities, revenue and capacity for a resource rich country.  We suggest that the new minister conduct a transparent bid round for the marginal fields and oil prospecting licenses in the nearest future – within a year.

The 2002/2003 bid rounds have been adjudged the most transparent and rewarding in Nigeria’s oil history. The Minister might want to borrow some ideas from stakeholders who participated.

Pipeline Vandalism: Sai Baba and the oil thieves  – Nigeria loses and defers about 400,000 barrels per day to pipeline vandalism and crude theft leaving the refineries idle, revenue depleted and armed gangs enriched. It’s noteworthy that these losses/deferments are more than the total daily production of the middle east quartet – Brunei, Yemen, Uzbekistan and Bahrain. Recent governments adopted light-touch, incentive only strategies hence the proliferation of crude theft and in some instances sabotage by locals seeking for collateral damages. But with the impact of pipeline losses/deferments on revenues and the fiscal crisis in all the tiers of government, addressing these illicit activities have become critical.

There is no silver bullet for pipeline vandalism and sabotage but solutions would always involve a delicate balance of consistent force, incentives, education and surveillance. One of our recommended solutions would be the establishment and fortification of permanent multi-functional team focused on tackling economic sabotage around the country. This team could mirror the likes of UK Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure or its American counterpart, the Federal Protective Service. The Minister could also influence the listing of major arterial pipelines such as Trans Niger Pipeline, Trans Forcados Pipeline as ‘National Strategic Infrastructure’ whom by their significance are expected to enjoy enhanced protective resources.

Drones anybody?

Industry Regulation and Fiscal Efficiency

Ministerial Consents: When dealers apply to you, consent thou quickly  – The wave of divestment and mergers/acquisitions in the last half a decade are characteristic of mature basins where old and new players in the industry recalibrate their portfolio. The usual trend of smaller players snapping up IOC divestment has redefined the Nigerian landscape, promoting industry efficiency and capacity.

However, the discretionary interventions by government in the recent M & A deals in the industry have become a principal risk and encumbrance.

The administration of the ministerial consents to M & A and divestment deals should be reformed.  Certainly, government must have the opportunity to intervene in the industry for strategic reasons but such interventions must consider the efficiency and growth of the industry. We recommend that new minister publish regulations and guidance on the process for receiving ministerial consents in M & A deals amongst others. The guidance must provide timelines and reconsideration/appeal options that extend beyond the sole discretion of the Minister.

Certainty and transparency is key for industry growth and efficiency.

JV Funding & Fiscal Uncertainties: Good soups cost money – Finding an enduring solution to the Joint venture funding deficits is germane to Nigeria’s oil and gas aspirations as the lack of funding for the government’s equity over the years has severely constrained production and stunted the growth of the industry. About $5 Billion is reportedly been owed to the JV partners. Rig count in the country has dropped by about 50% in the last five years. Production has never returned to the pre 2006 peak. This is clearly unsustainable.

Various options have been advised in the past with the most radical been the total sale of government equity in the JV assets. We consider that an extreme and ill-thought option. Government’s equity in assets especially in developing countries are essential for strategic reasons.  What happened to the Incorporated Joint Venture model being used by the NLNG? Would the Modified Carry Arrangements be a better long-term option? Ring-fence assets and raise bonds?

Many options for the new minister to consider but only one result is essential – perennial funding deficits must be addressed.

Subsidies: No longer at ease – Fuel subsidies have become an albatross on Nigeria’s petroleum downstream sector. It has discouraged  necessary investments and incentivized retail corruption in the downstream sector. The resources needed to address the corruption in the determination and applications of subsidies are too prohibitive. A reset is the only alternative. Thankfully, the debate around the issue is inadvertently reducing the possibility of a strong reaction if the new government implements it.

As a first step, the minister must gazette the removal of the subsidy on kerosene as anticipated by earlier governments.  To limit the impact on the Nigerians, the kerosene conversion programme (see LPG) must be aggressively implemented. For petrol, the debate is centered mostly on the most appropriate timing for the removal of subsidies. Would a shock therapy suffice? Maybe the option of allowing a gradual revival of internal capacity before removal?

Gas Reforms

Gas Pricing: Follow the Money – Nigeria produces over 6bscf/day but only a fraction gets supplied to the domestic market. About 40% is exported through LNG, 35% reinjected, with about 12-15% been sold in the country. Sobering facts but it’s an indication that gas production in Nigeria over the years have simply ‘followed the money”.

As at 2011, domestic gas prices was pegged by government at a measly $0.40 mscf/d while LNG inlet gas prices hovered above $2.00/mscf/d -a 500% premium. Investments by the IOCs/NNPC naturally were biased towards the export projects – NLNG, WAGP, GTL etc.

Low gas prices and a fragile gas commercial framework have seriously stymied the development of the domestic gas market. That is changing though. The recent administration has correctly identified this challenge, allowing an upward rise in gas prices and providing policy support to strengthen the commercial domestic gas value chain. What the new minister would be expected to do is ensure proper, official communication of these gas prices as there are still some confusion in the value chain about the effectiveness of the new prices and also resist attempts by non-oil and gas agencies to takeover the regulation of gas prices.

Removing commercial uncertainties in the gas sector would be a big fillip for the industry’s growth.

Gas Infrastructure: He who lays the pipe dictates the tune – Nigeria has a gas infrastructure problem, not a gas supply one. Poor and shortsighted policies have constrained investments in domestic gas infrastructure leaving available gas resources that would have been used in-country stranded. Typically, gas infrastructure attracts gas supplies beyond the ‘anchor’ projects as the Escravos Lagos Pipeline System has proven.

What Nigeria needs now are policies and measures that can accelerate gas infrastructure projects in the major demand hubs. Critical pipeline projects like the Oben – Obiafru/Obrikom  (OB3) pipeline project, Northern Option Pipeline (NOPL), Trans-Nigeria pipeline project must be actively pursued and monitored by the Minister.

Without these gas infrastructure projects, the countries domestic gas consumption ambitions might remain a pipe dream.

LPG Consumption in Nigeria: Cooking with strange fire – Biggest gas reserves in Africa but our usage of LPG (cooking gas) can only be compared to that of conflict-ridden countries. On per capita consumption basis, Senegal, Ghana, Benin Republic, Libya utilise more LPG than Nigeria. How we have failed to reinforce the utilisation of an available, cleaner and cheaper (on energy basis) cooking fuel remains a mystery.

But it was never like this. LPG usage as cooking fuel is underpinned by constant supply and affordability and until the early 1990’s supply was constant as the sole sources then, the refineries were in good shape. The degradation of the refineries later on meant that supply disappeared and most of the other sources were designed for export.

The country now has a good opportunity to restore LPG usage as the preferred cooking fuel of choice. A LPG revolution must be a priority for the minister as it is beneficial to the economy and also politically rewarding. The key issues to address are supply certainty and safety regulations. It would be in order for government to impose ‘domestic supply obligations’ on Mobil (Oso), Chevron (Escravos) and encourage the likes of NLNG who have been supplying in recent years. The various LPG projects been delayed around the country also needs to be keenly monitored and pursued.

The hugely successful kerosene conversion programmes in peer countries like Indonesia and Brazil also offer a template for Nigeria. In Indonesia, the government’s programme, decreased kerosene use from 9.89million litres to 1.72mill Litres in 5years, saved about $6.9billion on subsidy, LPG storage expanded from 136,000MT to 349,000MT, 54 million households benefited and converted to LPG, about 60 million cylinders in 54 million homes ( 95% kero conversion achieved) and 38,000 new jobs were created through the kero to LPG conversion programme. For a government who have proclaimed its centre-left credentials , we consider a robust LPG programme as a win-win.

Will we see ‘Buhari cooking gas’ anywhere soon?

Institutional Reforms

NNPC Reforms: Reforming the unreformable – NNPC needs a reset and for us this means:

• Determining the true financial state of the corporation. Considering the depth and breadth of the corporation, it may take eon and lots of resources. Quick option is to focus on priority subsidiaries – PPMC, NAPIMS, NPDC and COMD.
• Stripping and transferring its numerous regulatory/representative functions to the Ministry and Inspectorates.
• Fully commercializing and partly privatizing its subsidiaries – refineries, NPDC, NGC.

The Petroleum Industry BIll addresses many of the reforms anticipated for NNPC to perform efficiently and serve the nation hence the new administration must doggedly pursue the passage of the bill. If the political dimension of the bill continues to constrain its passage, it might be necessary to split the bill as been proposed by many stakeholders. The level of success recorded with reforming NNPC would largely determine the legacies of the new Minister.

DPR: The reluctant regulator – NNPC has acquired much power and influence in the oil industry largely because the regulator, DPR has been less than stellar in performing its duties. The regulator’s perennial reluctance to take the lead meant past governments relied on NNPC even for matters that should naturally be under the purview of DPR. We have now built a all-powerful, labyrinth monster that needs to be tamed.

The petroleum industry can no longer afford a lackluster and incapable DPR hence the need for reforms especially in capacity building, revenue collection, price monitoring, local content, petroleum information and data, frontier exploration, acreage management etc.

Sequitur

The array of issues highlighted above underscores the breadth of work awaiting the Minister. We posit that the country may not be able to afford the idea for the President to handle the petroleum industry as handling the oil industry demands more than integrity. There still exist within the industry those with right balance of integrity, capability and audaciousness. It is the President’s job to find them.

We wish him best of luck.

Hassan DM NO! WE MUST NOT GO DOWN THAT ROAD AGAIN

When some of us campaigned and voted for General Muhammadu Buhari, we did that in hope that he will move us from the old order, from the way things are done in this country. However, this morning we saw on Facebook, Twitter and other social media a picture people were gleefully sharing as something positive. Yes it is, if what we focus on is having a more modern and sophisticated trains. But it is far more than that.

This incoming government was elected on the platform of change, due process and adherence to the rule of law; a complete departure from the way things are? And if we are to go by that, then this picture is all wrong and it is by all standards a long walk back to what we are running away from. I'm an optimist about what General Muhammadu Buhari will do, but I'm also a pragmatist. In this picture, I see a maintenance of the status quo. And this is how and why.

One major promise (Nõ 5) that GMB and his Campaign Organization made to Nigerians is that upon becoming the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, he will immediately inaugurate the National Council on Public Procurement (NCOP). If he fail to do that within 100 days, we should consider him a failure. NCOPP is a fundamental requirement of the Public Procurement Act of 2007 (Part 1, Section 1).

The refusal of both late President Umaru Yar'adua and President Goodluck Jonathan's administration to inaugurate that council meant that from June 4th, 2007 till date all contracts exceeding N50million and subsequently adjusted financial limits were executed illegally. It also meant those responsible should be cooling off in jail. It will be a long list spanning 8 years, from June 4th, 2015.

The refusal of the two administrations to inaugurate that Council is understandable to professionals. Doing so means that contracts that meets certain financial thresholds cannot be award without the approval of the Council. And the reason they refused to institute the Council is because it is made up of two group of members - 6 full time and 6 part time.

The full time members of NCOP are members of the government appointed by the President, made up of;

<> Minister of Finance (Serve as Chairman)

<> Accountant General of the Federation

<> Secretary to the Federal Government

<> Head of Service

<> Economic Adviser to the President

<> DG, Bureau for Public Procurement (Serves as Secretary of the council.

While the part time members are largely organizations that are not in government. They are represented by their leaders, whose positions are subject to elections by their members are;

<> Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPSMN)

<> Nigerian Bar Association (NBA)

<> Nigerian Society of Engineers (NSE)

<> Media (NUJ)

<> NACCIMA

<> Civil Society Organizations (CSOs)

Each of the named professional bodies and CSOs are to send one member to represent them at the Council. By the letters of that Act, Presidents, Governors and Ministers cannot award contracts. The Council should. And the politicians will not allow a small burden like abiding by the same laws they create disturb them. They don't want scrutiny from core professional bodies and CSOs. Just imagine the Presidents of CIPSMN, NBA, NSE, NUJ, NACCIMA and CSOs in every NCOP meeting and the nuisance they will cause political thieves. They want steal and steal and steal. So, no Council.

Now, here we are with GMB been shown a prototype of train by an executive of ONE foreign firm. Just one. The law requires ALL firms interested to go through open competitive tendering process, which Bureau for Public Procurement, Tenders Board of the Ministry or the Procuring entity or any recognized body should organize the process, from whence the winner will be awarded the job. We have to change the situation.

For this reason, if we wake up any day after May 30th, 2015, and we are told that the Federal Government has awarded a contract for the construction rail tracks, supply of engines and coaches and other equipment required for the smooth running of the system, without going through the process and without an NCOP in place, then GMB and his administration will by then continue the practice of breaking our laws and impunity, and especially with breaking campaign promise, which is to inaugurate an NCOP within days of coming to office.

I understand why people celebrate this picture of a Chinese, Japanese or Korean train building executive showing our President-elect a prototype of a train. Apart from the fact because we deserve better what is going on, it is borne out of ignorance of the legal, ethical professional and economic implications of having some foreign business person who possibly paid those that led him to the President-elect without recourse to the laws of our land. This is to hand an undue advantage to a firm and ignoring the principle of ethics and competition.

The new government must wait for May 29th, be sworn in, inaugurate a Council for public procurement, and advertise the job and invite potential contractors to bid. Anything short of that is both unethical and illegal. It violates section the principles of 4 (c - d) of the PPA. Buhari must never be seen with any business executive. All businesses interested must compete. And that is not me talking. It is a core procurement principle. All contractors, suppliers and service providers must be subjected to open scrutiny and competition. And that is THE LAW.

Time to stop wasting monies we don't have. What happen to the billions Nigeria obtain in loans and spent on that "bogus" trains? What happen to the people that are responsible? Time to start doing the right thing, following the proper procedures. Time to inaugurate the NCOP and allow it.

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Libya and Europe

When France led others including the UK to attack Libya, only their ego was in display. They were not challenged in their home countries, they acted without opposition. They had no forethought for their actions. They had the immediate gratification of removing an old enemy. They had no sense of history or geography. They were of not aware of African parables including, if you shit, you have no right to the flight path of the flies.

Libya is a small country but with huge resources which their big leader invested in his people while keeping them occupied with external fires in order to keep himself in power. Idle minds seeks political freedoms but if busy, happy to enjoy the fruits of their economy, which the Libyans did. The West in its arrogance, it's s self belief that simple third world countries can not arrange their own affairs intervened in Libya with dire consequences for countries north and south of Libya. 

Libya was turned into Somali with money. The state dissolved and private 18th century armies created their various fiefdoms. Arms flow from Libya devastated Mali, and some think entered the Nigerian Northeast. 

Now with no central authority in Libya, it is now a main source of refugees from Africa to Europe. Economic and political refugees from Nigeria to Libya now seek salvation in Europe using the collapsed state that was Libya. 

ISIS now has a foothold in Africa. 

Yet no word of regret from European politicians on the folly of their Libyan adventure. Even Africans are not gloating saying "We told you so". This means the West will continue its ill thought out adventures and the merry go round will continue. 

The Nigerian government must do more to educate its people that the rat run through the Sahara to costal North Africa is not worth their lives. And give the opportunities to make their lives matter in their home country.

In Europe its citizens must electorally punish its governments engaging in ill fated adventures. They must understand that a mothers who beats a child to sleep will not sleep while the child cries. 

Nigeria elections and its Press

The state of our Nigeria journalism and their report card during the just concluded general elections. 

Lazy is the adjective I will use to describe the media both print and television. They failed in all the headings used to judge; education, explanation and entertainment of the nation. It failed to educate the population. Reading the press one is astonished at the lack of information. The headlines usually have no bearing to the thrust of the stories. They were just happy to repeat baseless rumours and became a rumour mill for mischief makers. People in Nigeria just wake up in the morning and without basis or foundation, ring a known journalist with a story of how so much money was stolen. This fire is also heated up by social media press whose irresponsibility knows no bounds. The climate of impunity was not just for government officials but also the forth estate, the press. Mud is thrown, hope and it usually does, sticks. Real scandals are not investigated to give justice to the people and the story. 

The quality of the writings leaves much to be desired. Bad grammar, use of inappropriate words, using Latin phases to indicate their level of intelligence but unintelligible to their audience. Listening to commentators and presenters on TV, they usually just spoken to themselves without regards to the audience. 

Their attitude to politicians usually was tell us dear leader, what you have for the people and your presence glorifies us. It's toe's crawling. The politicians will reel out platitudes and rumours about their opponents without robust challenge. The governor of Rivers state alleged on national TV that an opponent took contract money and never completed the contract nor refunded the money, billions of Naira. That was a full stop and next question. He also boasted of a clear unconstitutional action. He had taken up the management of primary schools, which is within the responsibilities of the local government not of the state, again no follow up question of who died and made you king. Gapping goals, just waiting for a tap in and over the bar consistently. 

The government press are just town criers for the government of the day. 

The elections and its procedures were never properly explained to the populace by the press. And all you had to do was just read out the INEC website to achieve this goal, again no tapping into an open goal. 

The opposition candidate, GMB got away from a debate rather than boycott all of his press activities until he came to the debate the Press as a body ran with its tail within its legs. Reason being, they also gave a pass to the President in 2011. 

Politicians were allowed and I dear say, encouraged to speak from both sides of mouths and backsides if it made their points. 

There was no pretence to educate the nation on its politics. The presidential spokesmen were allowed to turn press engagement to religious pronouncements. I kicked myself hearing it was in God's hands. That was get their out of jail card played over and over again by all colours and shades of politicians. 

Watching and reading the Press in Nigeria was and is a sight to behold. They failed in the assigned mission. 

Solutions. Retrain all and sundry from editors to reporters. They must check, check and recheck their sources and stories before they print. They must resist the easy temptation of printing wholesale what they see in social media. Social media has limited audience while the Press has mass audience and not allow the tail to wag the dog.

Where to go PDP

PDP should metamorphosis into New PDP. Power is the only cement which hold the party together therefore it's only claim to existence must be the pursuit and retaining of power. 

From 1999 to 2015, it had power and was the biggest political party in Africa. It lost power and it's the smallest opposition party in Africa. Since power is the only glue that can hold the party together it must reinvent itself. It must become the party of the common man, a crusader against corruption, an efficient administrator of resources, against sectional and religious polities. It must be all it was not. 

It must paint and expose the APC government as a bunch of fair weather friends, sectional and seasonal interests party. It must expose within its ranks the corruptible, it knows all of them they were formally within its ranks or in allegiance with them (Tinubu). It knows where all the dead bodies are buried, this is a chance to be like Caesar's wife, be above board and be seen to be above board. 

The charlatans who left and now form the vanguard of the APC should be made to be the face of APC. When Nigerians see APC they should see discredited former PDP henchmen. 

PDP should get the brightest and best men and women as its evidence of rebirth. They should expose the APC as merely promising just for promise sake. They should dog the APC with all of their unattainable promises. They must produce the Chibouk girls immediately as they promised and end Boko Haram within 30 days from the announcement of the elections. Naira must be at par with the U.S. Dollar within 60 days of winning the elections. Heavens will fall on them if free education and medical care is not provided for all Nigerians within their first budget. All hospital must be fully functional and not mere dispensing premises. Every APC member who goes abroad must be exposed as getting for themselves what they have promised and failed to deliver for Nigerians.

At the same time blame APC for all the ills which will befall Nigeria. If GMB makes any military type order or statements like with immediate effect, question his commitment to democratic principles. Always use General to address him especially with foreign press, giving the impression that he is like General Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisiof Egypt. A military man in Civilian cloths with no business in the biggest democracy in Africa.

Tinubu is the soft underbelly of GMB, make him the defacto leader of Nigeria. Create distrust between Tinubu and GMB. Tinubu has ego and wants to be known to have midwifed APC to government, use that ego, credit him with all that is good and evil to GMB. He will claim the credit. Tie OBJ as the puppet master of Tinubu or something, he is so discredited that people will believe it. 

At every turn take legal action against the APC that will rattle them. They will make mistakes. They are bound to, that what we do as Nigerians but make it an APC problem. Let Nigerians believe they never had so good under old PDP and allows refer to pass actions to an old PDP. 

Make somebody from the South West to be the leader of the New PDP. Break the grip of Tinubu on the South West. Placate the middle Belt, turn Kwara and Kogi state against the Saraki's. What have they got to show for the vice grip of these states. Do not tie the futures of the New PDP to any oligarch. If fact burn the witches on the stake to show how repent the New PDP is. Publicly expel OBJ, FKK, Bode George, David Mark and their types. They are finished and have no destructive power or creative power, old PDP still lost with some of them within its rank. Bode George can not catch a cold in Lagos. Under David Mark's watch old PDP lost Benue. Expelling them will give kudos to the New PDP. 

Plan for government, aim for government, walk, run, whatever just get to government. New PDP will be like New Labour or Obama democrats. There is no point being in politics if not in government putting your service for the betterment of the people.